Home Values are Rising and Inventory Levels are Falling in Forsyth and North Fulton

By Steve Palm
Smart Numbers

We got our rate cut this last month! We HAD to have this reduction, but will it be enough to turn our housing market around? I believe there will be one or two more interest rate reductions before the end of the year. They will be needed after looking at August 2007 results.

There were 5,129 closings for all single family in August. This is a decline of 34.6% from the same year ago period. After lagged closings are reported, the percentage decline will most likely be more than 20% and the largest percentage decline on record (since 1996).

Single family detached closed 4,343 units in August or a decline of 34.6% from the same year ago period. This was the 6^th consecutive percentage decline and 12 out of the last 13 periods have produced a negative year-to-year percentage change.

Condos and Townhomes closed 785 units or a decline of 33.7% from August 2006. This was the 6th consecutive percentage decline and the 9^th percentage decline over the past 12 monthly periods.

The average sale price for single family detached closings in August was $278,871 versus $264,510 for the same year ago period. Condos and townhomes had an average price of $193,009 versus $186,557 for August 2006.

The real estate bad news does not translate to the north Fulton, west Gwinnett and Forsyth County market. In August those areas experienced

1. A rise in resale homes values
2. A significant drop in the number of months of inventory
3. A drop in the average number of days before a home sold

Locally, Forsyth County home values increased 6% and North Fulton home values have increased 8% from August 2006 to August 2007.

Forsyth County currently has 7.32 months of inventory of pre-owned homes, down over last month’s 8.93 months of inventory, which is the third consecutive month of reduced inventory levels in Forsyth County. Augusts’ 122.2 average days on the market is also down 15.5 days from the previous month of 137.7 average days on the market.

North Fulton currently has 7.73 month’s of inventory which is down from last month’s 7.85 months of inventory of pre-owned homes. This month’s 110.7 average selling time is up 14-days compared to last month’s average selling time of 96.7 days.

There were 7,181 expired listings in August. This was 19 more than Last December’s all-time record and 2,100 more than August 2006.

There are 36,894 expired listings for single family detached for year-to-date August 2007. There are 10,000+ more expired listings than were reported for the first eight months of 2006 and more expired listings than were reported for all of 2002.

Single family detached and condos & townhomes broke the record in August for most withdrawn listings for a given period. Single family detached had 3,196 withdrawn listings in August and easily surpassed the previous record of 2,920 withdrawn listings in June 2007. Condos and townhomes had 546 withdrawn listings in August and also easily surpassed the previous record of 495 withdrawn listings in June 2007.

Days on market and months supply continue to increase. Days on market for all single family is averaging 86.2 through year-to-date 2007. This is the highest average for the past 13 years and it is expected to go only higher.

Days on market for year-to-date 2007 for condos and townhomes is 95.0, and is the highest yearly average since records have been kept. The previous high was last year’s 91.0.

Months supply is at an all-time high and below is a three year August trend:

The rate cut was indeed very good for our housing market. However, more is needed and consumer sentiment needs to improve and soon. I believe 3rd quarter will be our bottom and then our slow turn for improvement will begin in the 4th quarter.

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The real estate battle is on. Low cost providers vs. traditional real estate agents. Which is better for you?

Surprising numbers are emerging from the North Fulton and South Forsyth real estate market. A limited number of real estate companies are driving down the cost of selling your home while surpassing the sales performance of the traditional franchise real estate agents. According to sales data over the past 12 months from the Georgia MLS, 3 of the top 6 real estate agents for the South Forsyth and North Fulton area are lower cost service providers. These low cost service providers are selling houses quicker and for more money than the area’s top 3 traditional real estate agents.

David Gibbard, Broker/Owner of Alpha Team Realty, a full service lower cost real estate company says, “You have probably heard the old saying, you get what you pay for”, which he says is the typical response many traditional real estate agents use when explaining lower cost service providers. Well, that may not be the case in North Fulton and South Forsyth. According to Georgia MLS data, of the top 6 listing agents in the area, the lower cost service providers do 17.3% more sales. According to Alpha Team Realty broker, David Gibbard, the average number of days on the market for the lower cost service providers is 68.13 days, compared to the top 3 traditional real estate agents of 87.83 days. That is a difference of 19.7 days less on the market, which means the lower cost service providers are selling their homes 28% faster.  Mr. Gibbard also said that traditional real estate agents will often say, “You are not getting top dollar for your home when you use a lower cost provider”. Again the facts do not support that claim. The average selling price of a home with the lower costs service providers is $309,627, while for the same area the average selling price for the top 3 traditional real estate agents is $254,532. The top 3 lower cost real estate companies sell their homes on average for 97.23% of the asking price, while the top 3 traditional real estate agents sell their home for 96.01% of the asking price. For the average selling price home in our area, this represents an additional $3,846.50 into the hands of the seller. Best of all, the additional profit of $3,846.50 does not even include the savings from the lower seller paid commission or fees charged by the lower cost service providers when compared to the higher real estate commissions of around 6% with the traditional real estate agents.

David Gibbard of Alpha Team Realty showed his company’s market performance and it is even more impressive. Over the past 12 months in the South Forsyth and North Fulton markets, Alpha Team Realty’s homes sell on average, in 34.5 days with an average selling price of $309,663, which is 99.51% of the asking price. When asked why his numbers are better than any of the top area agents, David Gibbard attributes it to the fact that in addition to providing his clients with lower cost services, he also provides full service and he has years of successful negotiation skills that has served his clients well. “In the end, it is a combination of price, quality service and our expertise that gets the job done” explains Mr. Gibbard.

North Fulton and South Forsyth home sellers, the market has changed. Lower cost service providers are leading the way in market share and sales performance. If you are considering selling your home you will want to get a free copy of this important information. If you would like to receive a free copy of this independently verified real estate agent comparison report you can order it by calling a toll free 24-hour recorded information order hotline at 877-411-9264 ID # 1605 or you can order it online at www.atlMLSdata.com.

For a detailed analysis of Forsyth County and North Fulton by zip code and price range for August 2007 click here for details Forsyth County and North Fulton Detailed Analysis