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Metro Atlanta Report:
A Great Time to Buy, Consumer Confidence is Up
By Steve Palm
Smart Numbers
September ended what
may be the worst year-to-year quarterly (July-September) percentage
change in single family units closed that will ever be reported. At
least I hope so.
There were 4,017
units closed for all single family in September. This is a 39.6% decline
from September 2006. Plus, last September was our first year-to-year
percentage decline reported during our housing recession. Even after
lags are reported the percentage decline will be 24-27%, easily our
greatest percentage decline to be reported since the early 90’s.
Single family
detached closed 3,406 units or a decline of 39.6% and condos & townhomes
closed 611 units or a decline of 39.7%. However, we are also comparing
against a very strong housing market from 2004-2006. Even without the
4th quarter the year-to-date closings in 2007 are more than we had for
all of 2002 and we could have more closings at year-end than we had in
2004.
The average price
for all single family was $255,011 in September and $257,692 for
year-to-date 2007. Both of the averages are up 2.6% and 2.9% from 2006.
The median price for
year-to-date 2007 is $195,000, compared to 2006’s median price of
$192,500 or an increase of 1.3%. The reason the increase for “average”
is higher than the increase for “median” is that the high-end market has
not declined like the rest of the market. The following chart is for
1MM+ closings for the past three years through September. One of the
bright spots for housing in 2007 is that the high-end is ahead of last
year.
|
Yr/Mth |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
Total |
|
2005 |
20 |
50 |
51 |
63 |
50 |
84 |
80 |
73 |
64 |
535 |
|
2006 |
38 |
53 |
73 |
67 |
95 |
115 |
99 |
77 |
62 |
679 |
|
2007 |
41 |
61 |
94 |
73 |
108 |
122 |
82 |
90 |
54 |
725 |
The record for
expired listings for all single family was broken in September. There
were 7,808 expired listings, easily surpassing the previous record of
7,168 from last December. This record will most likely be broken again
before 2008.
There were 3,028
withdrawn listings for all single family in September. This fell short
of the record broken in August, but was still the 3rd highest on record.
Days on market for
all single family was 91.5 in September. This is the highest recorded
DOM for all single family since February 1998.
Months-supply has
slowed its increase, but the three year comparison greatly reflects our
housing slowdown.
|
Months Supply |
09/30/2005 |
09/30/2006 |
09/30/2007 |
%
Change 06' |
|
New -
Single Family Detached |
7.4 |
10.5 |
14.0 |
33.3 |
|
New -
Condos & Townhomes |
7.3 |
8.8 |
14.2 |
61.4 |
|
Resale -
Single Family Detached |
6.3 |
7.3 |
10.8 |
47.9 |
|
Resale -
Condos & Townhomes |
10.0 |
9.1 |
11.3 |
24.2 |
The good news, it is
a great time to buy, the FED cut interest rates, consumer confidence
increased for the first time in seven months, and the equity markets
have improved. What we need is another rate cut, increased consumer
confidence, and the equity markets continuing to improve. If this
happens, housing will start to come back. October, November, and
December will be key reporting periods to see if this will happen.
This document is
copy protected by Steve Palm, Smart Numbers and is reproduced with
permission. No party may use or reproduce this information without the
express written permission of Steve Palm and Smart Numbers.
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