October 21, 2006
There is a lot of negative news to report this period.
However, we all knew this was going to happen, Smartnumbers predicted it
would happen back in 2005, and we also know that we should have a fairly
quick turnaround.
For the second consecutive period the year-to-year change
for single family closings will be negative. There were 5,180 single family
detached closings in September. This was down 14.5% from September 2005 and
is our largest negative percentage change since March 2003.
There were 899 closings for townhomes and condominiums in
September. This is down 15% from the same year ago period and will be the
first period year-to-year negative change since March 2003.
There were 6,079 closings for all single family in September
or a year-to-year decline of 14.5%. This is also the largest decline since
March 2003 and also the second consecutive year-to-year negative period
change.
The average sale price for single family detached closings
in September was $258,278. This was only 1% higher than September 2005 and
way below 2005’s 6.3% increase over 2004. This was also $18,000 less than
our all-time high that was established in July.
The average sale price for condos and townhomes was $193,338
for September. This was an increase of 1.2% from the same year ago period
and still a larger percentage increase than the 2004-2005 and 2003-2004
annual reporting periods.
When there is high inventory and slowing demand you can
expect a lot of expired listings. September broke the record for the most
expired single-family listings for a given period. There were 5,605 expired
listings for all single family, which exceeded the previous high of 5,551 in
December 2005. Before the year is out you can expect this record to be
broken again.
There were 2,082 withdrawn listings and the average
days-on-market was 77.7 for all single family in September.
The months supply of inventory increased again in September,
but was concentrated more towards new homes rather than resales. The months
supply for single family detached – new construction went from 10.0 in
August to 10.5 in September. The months supply for condos and townhomes –
new construction went from 8.4 in August to 8.8 in September. However, the
months supply for single family detached – resales went from 7.4 in August
to 7.3 in September and the months supply for condos and townhomes - resales
went from 9.5 in August to 9.1 in September.
If you’re an agent in the high end housing market you need
to concentrate your efforts within and around the Perimeter, as in any
housing downturn the high-end "rural" markets are affected the most and are
the last segment to turn the corner.
Thank you,
Steve Palm
Smart Numbers
This document is copy protected by Steve Palm, Smart Numbers
and is reproduced with permission. No party may use or reproduce this
information without the express written permission of Steve Palm and Smart
Numbers.
© 2006 Smart Numbers
