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Metro Atlanta's
Real Estate Update for September 2004.
October 20, 2004
September results were again “flat”, as there were 5,114
closings for single family or a decline of 1.3% from
the same year ago period. However, after lagged closings are reported we
will be positive. Our August
closings are now positive, so September will mark the eighteenth consecutive
year-to-year positive reporting
period. Condos and townhomes
are still out performing single family detached. There were 610 condo and
townhome closings in September or a year-to-year gain of 3.4%. After lagged
closings are reported, the
percent change will be close to 10%. If the gain is indeed 10 or more
percent then this would mark the
sixteenth consecutive double digit year-to-year percentage increase.
The above trends are impressive, but single family
detached continues to be flat. With 4,504 closings in
September, the year-to-year change was a negative 1.9%. After lags are
reported there should be an increase,
but only a few percentage points. Through June, detached single family was
up over 10% over the same year
ago period. However, the past three months are up only a couple of
percentage points. Condo and
townhome closings continue to increase and this can still be directly
related to price. The average
sale price for condos and townhomes was $189,325 in September. This was a
decrease of 3.6% from the
same year ago period and the fourth consecutive monthly decline. For the
year, the average sale price is
$185,864 or down 1% from 2003’s average.
Most people would take the condo and townhome price
declines as being a sign of slow demand, but the
opposite is true here. Why the reverse? The answer is simple, a large
percentage of the condos and
townhomes that are being reporting in the closings are new construction, as
the builders and developers are
pulling demand away from resales with lower priced attached single family.
Over the past year there were 2,228 closings for condo
and townhome new construction versus 5,236 for
resales, as almost 30% of all condo and townhome closings were new. Single
family detached new
construction had 11,411 closings for the past 12 months versus 43,805
resales or only 20% of the total being
new construction.
Days-on-market improved again in September for all single family. This marks
the 9th month during the past
12 months that a decrease was reported.
As we head into the final few months of 2004 there are a
few uncertainties that may impact housing for 2005.
The election next month, rising oil prices, and Iraq will all need to be
watched closely, because at the last
economic reporting conference in August there was more of a mood from our
economists of uncertainly
rather than to be upbeat.
Thank you,
Steve Palm
Smart Numbers This document is copy protected by Steve Palm, Smart Numbers
and is reproduced with permission. No party may use or reproduce this
information without the express written permission of Steve Palm and Smart
Numbers.
© 2004 Smart Numbers
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November 2004
