Metro Atlanta Real Estate Market Making a Positive Turn

By Steve Palm
Smart Numbers

There were 4,454 closings for all single family detached to start out the first period of 2007. This was down 8.1% from January 2006.

This is a good sign. The decline of 8.1% is less than December’s 10.4% decline. This will probably be the best year-to-year change-reporting period for closings since August 2006 when we had a modest 1.3% increase.

Single family detached had 3,434 closings for January or a year-to-year decline of 9.8%. This will be the 6^th consecutive decline after 40 consecutive increases.

Condos and townhomes had 658 closings or an increase of 1.9% from January 2006. This is a good improvement from December’s 9.0% reported declines.

The average sale price in January for single family detached was $254,388. This was increase of 5.6% from January 2006 and the largest year-to-year period increase since December 2005. This may be another sign that the housing market may be starting to “turn the corner.”

The average sale price for condos and townhomes was $190,450 or a decline of 0.6% from January 2006. This is the main reason why condos and townhomes had an increase, while single family detached had a decline in closings.

The overall inventory of homes for sale is going through some extreme status changes. This can be expected in a slow housing market with high inventories.

The number of expired listings in January for all single family detached was 5,505. This is up almost 30% from January 2006. However, that increase is small compared to withdrawn listings reported in January. There were 2,246 withdrawn listings or an increase of 65% over January 2006.

There were a combined 16,000 expired and withdrawn listings for both December 2006 and January 2007. That is 60% more than what closed for all single family.

I am including the year-to year inventory trending grid. At the end of December a lot of consumers have taken their properties off the market for the holidays, so it very common to see upward shifts in months supply in January and 2007 was very indicative of this trend.

The days-on-market for January was 90.6 for all single family. This is the second consecutive period above 90 days and the first time this has happened since 1998.

I believe the slowdown in housing has damaged our economy enough that an interest rate cut, not a hike is needed. This could take place, hopefully, before our summer season.