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Metro Atlanta's
Real Estate Update for November 2004.
December 20, 2004
Single family closings increased by 22.7% in November. This is the largest
increase since June and after
lagged closings are reported, this could be the largest monthly increase
(percentage) for the year. As
we head into our final month of 2004, it has already been established that
2004 may be our best year-to-year
percentage increase since 1998-1999. We are up 2.5% without December’s
numbers and if there are
5,000 single family closings in December, we will be up 11% for the year.
Single family detached was up a strong 21.2%, while
condos and townhomes were up a very strong 34.2%.
Even without December’s numbers, condos and townhomes are up over 17% from
2003. The average price for
condos and townhomes for November was $191,400 or an increase of 3.4% from
the
same year ago period. This is the first year-to-year monthly increase after
5 straight declines. Single
family detached had an average sale price of $242,307 in November. This was
up 5.6% from
November 2003 and almost $100,000 higher than it was 10 years ago when the
average price was $148,446
in November 1994. The number
of expired and withdrawn listings have been declining in relation to
closings for all single family
housing. From January through September there have been 12% more expired and
withdrawn listings in
relation to closings. However, in October and November there have been only
3%. This is a definite sign of
a housing market starting to get stronger.
When closings start exceeding expired & withdrawn
listings and/or new listings, demand is exceeding
supply. We have not seen this type of trending since the late 90’s, but
there are signs it could start happening
soon. Inventories have
declined 4 straight months. Traditionally, inventory levels should drop
again in December and
January. If that happens we could have a 6 month consecutive drop in
inventories. The last time we had a 6 month
consecutive drop, or even a four month consecutive drop, was in 1997 or the
beginning of our 1998-1999 housing
surge. I believe 2005 will be very strong. If interest rates, unemployment,
and inflation remain low, we can start
adding significant jobs, keep Iraq/International’s affairs under wraps, and
avoid a serious Delta backlash,
then yes, 2005-2006 could be a very strong economic time for us and our
housing markets.
Thank you,
Steve Palm
Smart Numbers This document is copy protected by Steve Palm, Smart Numbers
and is reproduced with permission. No party may use or reproduce this
information without the express written permission of Steve Palm and Smart
Numbers.
© 2005 Smart Numbers
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January 2005
