December 19, 2003

Closings for all single family in November were down 8.1%. However, our estimated percentage lag for

October was not the estimated 4%, but rather 8%, so November may end up almost even or "flat" compared

to the same year-ago period.

This is a negative trend heading into 2004, because after double digit growth for the past 5 months we will

now, at best, be even for November. The average year-to-year change for June through October was a robust

17% increase, so with interest rates edging back up, home sales may have started to slow down.

The average sale price for single family detached closings in November was $231,821 or an increase of 5.4%

over the same year ago period. For the year, single-family-detached is up a modest 3.0%. The average sale

price for condos and townhomes was $186,908 or a 0.9% increase from November 2002. For the year, the

average price for condos and townhomes is also up a modest 3.3% from 2002.

Average sale prices remain fairly stable and this is still good for our housing market. Stable price

appreciation means stable interest rates, stable inventories, and consistent market trends.

There were 4,097 expired single family listings in November. This has brought the total for the year to

41,920, which is already greater than 2002’s total of 40,623. We may be close to 50M total expired listings

at year-end, because December is always the peak expired listing month and we could have around 6,000

expireds in December, bringing our total to 48,000.

This is another indication of moderation, because even though we will expire 7-8M more listings in 2003

than 2002, it will be the smallest year to year percentage increase since 1998-1999.

In November, we found 598 listings that were previously listed. This is down from October’s 750 and from

months earlier this year when the totals were more than a 1,000.

For the second straight month, days-on-market was down from the same year ago period. This is the first

time this has happened since May-June 2000.

Inventories have remained almost level for the past eight months. This is also another very good sign of

moderation, especially after the large incremental increases from 2000-2002.

Let’s hope the positive economic signs continue, the International fronts provide more positive news, and

consumers spend heavily over the holidays, so that 2004 will be strong for housing.

Steve Palm

Smart Numbers