November 21, 2006
Single family detached had another down period in October.
There were 4,686 closings compared to 5,484 for October 05’ or a decrease of
14.6%. This is the fourth consecutive decline for single family detached
housing. The last time this occurred was 10/99-01/00.
Condos and townhomes reversed their year-to-year decrease in
September, as 871 condos and townhomes were closed in October or an increase
of 2.0% from the same year ago period. Even with our slow down in real
estate, condos and townhomes will have more closings after November than
were reported for all of 2005.
For the year, there have been almost 3,000 more
single-family closings than through October 2005. Compared to other markets
that Smartnumbers follows, Atlanta has experienced a much milder housing
slowdown. Some of the Florida markets are down over 30% year to year.
For the first time in almost five years, we are reporting a
drop for a monthly year-to-year average sale price for single family
detached. The average sale price in October for single family detached was
$248,989 or a decline of 1.5% from October 2005’s average price of $252,730.
It was anticipated that when we slowed and inventories would
rise that there would be pressure on prices to decline.
For the year, single family detached is 2.5% higher than
2005 and just another indication that the Atlanta housing slowdown will be a
soft one.
The average price for condos and townhomes was $190,472.
This is 3.8% higher than October 2005 and the largest increase since May.
For the year, the average sale price for condos and townhomes is 2.8% higher
than 2005.
The inventory level for single family has increased
significantly since the end of February. There were 44,000 homes for sale
for all single family at the beginning of March compared to almost 55,000
units at the end of October. There will be continued pressure on prices to
come down with the large in inventory.
At the end of October, the months-supply for detached single
family was at 8 months. This is just below the highest point recorded over
the past 10 years of 8.1 at the end of May 2003. By the end of November,
this mark will most likely be exceeded.
The months-supply for condos and townhomes at the end of
October was 8.6. This is still far below the ten year high of almost 12 that
was recorded three years ago.
There were almost as many expired listings as there were
closings for all single family in October. There were 5,354 expired listings
versus 5,557 units closed. However, if you added the 2,139 withdrawn
listings, there were more listings expiring and being withdrawn than units
closing.
We are in a slow down and I believe we are at or near the
bottom. If interest rates and unemployment remain low combined with pent-up
demand and moderating prices, we could have a rebound in the spring.
Thank you,
Steve Palm
Smart Numbers
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© 2006 Smart Numbers
