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Metro Atlanta's
Real Estate Update for December 2004.
November 21, 2004
There were 4,870 single family closings in October, which was an increase of
1.7% over the same year ago
period. Single family detached homes were down 1 closing, so after lags are
reported we will be up a few
percentage points. For the past three months, there have been only 57 more
single family detached closings
than the same year ago period or a “flat” market.
Condos and townhomes were up another strong 16.1% with 584 closings in
October. This is now the
seventeenth consecutive double digit percentage increase for condos and
townhomes. We also have closed
460 more townhomes and condominiums through October than we did for all of
2003.
While condos and townhomes have experienced double digit closings growth,
the average price is below the
same year ago period, 2003’s overall average, and below the prior period.
Through October, there have been
6,791 condo and townhome closings or almost 26% greater than the same period
in 2003. While for the
same time frame, the average price in 2004 is $185,605 and below 2003’s
average price of $187,852.
The average price for single family detached was $245,444 in October. This
mark was 6.8% higher than
October 2003 and is exceeded only by the 7.1% increase in March 2004 as the
greatest percentage monthly
year-to-year increase over the past two years.
There were 3,605 expired single family detached listings in October. This
was below October 2003’s mark
of 3,787. This is the first year-to-year monthly drop since January 2000!
This is not due from high demand,
but rather from reduced inventories.
As a result, single family prices have increased even with “flat” demand, as
there is just less to choose from.
On the other hand, inventories rose in October for condos and townhomes even
with another double digit
increase in sales. There are more condo and townhome listings coming on the
market than are selling, so the
large supply keeps pressure on prices from increasing even with the strong
demand.
The number of listings expiring dropped in October for single family
detached, but the days-on-market
increased. The DOM in October was 76.2, which was 2.2 DOM higher than
October 2003. This is the first
increase of more than a “day” for single family detached since September
2003 and only the third increase
for 2004.
I believe our “flat” market the past few months will give way to increased
closing volumes, as a lot of
uncertainty is now behind us, mainly the election. We still have some
unknowns out there, the war, the
impact of Delta’s pay-cuts, and high gas prices, which can still negatively
impact our housing market.
However, very low interest rates, low unemployment, and a growing economy
should offset the negatives.
Thank you,
Steve Palm
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© 2004 Smart Numbers
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December 2004
