March 22, 2006
February will be our third consecutive period for reporting
a single digit percentage increase for all single family closings. The
thirty previous monthly periods had only 6 single-digit percentage increases
versus 24 double-digit increases, so we have indeed slowed down a bit.
There were 4,579 closings for all single family in February.
This is down 5% from the same year ago period, but after lags are reported
we should be up in the positive single digits.
Condos and townhomes closed 701 units in February. This was
an increase of 12.5 % over February ‘05 and after lags are reported, should
be over 20%.
Single family detached closings reported 3,878 closings in
February, which is down 7.6% and after lags are reported, may be our lowest
increase in quite awhile.
The average sale price for condos and townhomes closed was
$197,981. This is an all-time high, but what makes it more interesting was
that it was achieved in February, usually a "lower" priced period. This
price was also 9.8% higher than February 2005 and probably a sign that our
strong continual double digit increases for condos and townhomes may be
ending sometime in 2006.
Single family detached had an average price of $251,742 in
February. This was a moderate 5.4% increase over last year’s result.
The number of expired listings for all single family was
3,527 in February. This was up from last February’s 3,400 and the third
consecutive increase after nine consecutive decreases. Again, just another
indicator of a slowing housing market.
Expired listings have remained fairly constant over the past
few years and can be reviewed on the "expired" chart, however withdrawn
listings are and have been a different story. Withdrawn listings for condos
and townhomes were 211 in February, up from 144 from the same year ago
period. Withdrawn listings for detached single family went from 1,130 in
February ‘05 to 1,375 last month. Reviewing the chart for withdrawn
listings, you can easily see the wide spread compared to expired listings.
The main reason for the trend of increased withdrawn
listings versus expired listings could very well be because of a changing or
slowing market. After the consumer experienced a "sellers" market for the
past few years their patience has not caught up with the market’s current
trends and conditions.
Days on market for all single family decreased again in
February from the same year ago period. DOM was 83.3 versus 87.4 and was the
6th consecutive decline. Should the market continue to moderate, DOM will
start to edge back up.
Interest rates hit a two-year high the second week in March.
Should they tick up another 0.3 percentage points then we will be at a
three-year high. If you want to slow a housing market down there is no
better way than with higher interest rates.
Thank you,
Steve Palm
Smart Numbers
April 2006
