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Metro Atlanta's
Real Estate Update for February 2003.
Atlanta in a very long time. Single family closings
started out in January down 6.5% and now February has declined 9.5%.
Condos and townhomes were almost
unchanged in February from the same year ago period, however single family
detached was down a large 10.6%. I should also mention that last year we
started out very strong in the first quarter and then gradually slowed down
the rest of the year.
I also see a slowing in the lower
price-points, which were very strong last year. In the $120,000 to $170,000
price range, which is where the greatest percentage of homes are sold, there
have been 249 fewer closings in 2003 than in the same time frame in 2002.
This is almost half of the total overall reduction. On the other hand, this
price range increased by 347 closings in 2002 over 2001 or almost 75% of the
entire increase over that time frame, 2001-2002.
Why the large change? I believe that
interest rates played a large role in keeping the housing market going in
2002. Every time the interest rate dropped a quarter of a percent that meant
X-amount more of apartment residents could now afford a home. In 2002, with
rates declining the entire year, there were a lot of home buyers pulled into
the market with rates going lower and lower. Now in 2003, there are less "availablepotential"
buyers, as they were already "pulled" into the market last year.
The average sale price for single family
detached was $217,901 or the lowest average since February 2002 and $7M
below 2002's average. Prices will definitely come under pressure if the
market continues to be soft.
The average price for Condos and
townhomes was $189,181 in February, an all-time high. The spread between
single family detached and attached is only $21,000, the smallest percentage
gap on record. This could be because the highest percentage of condos and
townhomes are "closer in" resulting in higher prices. The Area Price
Summaries reporting illustrates this very well.
We had 3,104 expired single family
listings in February and 6,839 so far this year. When compared to 2000's
2,582 for the same time period, you can see we have a lot of homes not
turning over like they were three years ago.
Days on market for single family housing
is averaging 84.1 for January-February 2003 or 22 days higher than 2000's
average and almost 10 days higher than 2002's average.
We need a very quick end to the war,
consumer confidence to improve, and the economy to pick up or 2003 could be
a difficult year.
Thank you,
Steve Palm Smart Numbers
2003 Smart Numbers
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April
2003
