We are starting out 2006 where we left off in 2005. We will have year-to-year increases in all single family, but we are not as strong as we were the first 11 months of 2005 and most of 2004.

There were 3,920 single-family housing units closed in January. This is 9 less than January 2005, but after lags are reported we should be up 6-7%. Remember, last month we had a modest 5.4% (lags now reported) after averaging almost 15% the first 11 months of 2005 and over 15% for 2004. There were 3,370 single family detached closings and 550 condo & townhome closings.

This is what we expected after a few rate increases, negative Delta news, hurricane woes, etc, but we were just so strong before these events that we have dropped to more “normal” increases.

The average sale prices for all single family have moderated the past two periods as well. Condos and townhomes had an average sale price of $189,925 in January. This is an increase of 4.9% from the same year ago period and the largest increase in 24 months.

Why can a moderate increase of 4.9% be a 24-month high? Condos and townhomes declined in price in 2004 and had only a 0.3% increase for 2005. The low prices also had a direct correlation to demand the past two years, which resulted in large increases in closings for condos and townhomes. However, as their price now starts to increase their sales levels will moderate. The two history charts (closings & average price) for condos and townhomes are very good illustrations for these two correlating trends.

The average sale price for detached single family in January was $242,944 or a moderate 3.7% increase from January 2005. Single family remains very affordable for most of Metro Atlanta compared to other major metropolitan areas, as at the end of 2005 Atlanta Metro’s population ranked 12th in the US, but 30th in home values (out of the top 52 in population)!

Days-on-market for all single family had a large drop in January from the same year ago period, plus declined for the 5th consecutive period when compared year-to-year. DOM was 83.6 (87.2 for 2005) in January for all single family, while it was 81.5 for detached and 96.9 for condos & townhomes.

We have not discussed withdrawn versus expired listings, but it is becoming an interesting trend. For the first time records have been kept, withdrawn listings increased and expired listings declined from year to year or 2005 versus 2004.

In January the number of withdrawn listings was 1,371 for all single family, while there were 4,318 expired listings. Not that unusual of a percentage mix, but there were 22.6% more withdrawn listings compared to 3.2% more expired listings versus the same period last year.

The two charts for expired and withdrawn listing shows the wide spread for withdraw listings the past 6 months versus expired. This could be a clear sign of uncertainly in the market over auto plant closings, Delta, etc., as the consumer is wanting/needing to take their home off the market during uncertain or unforeseen times ahead.

Thank you,

Steve Palm
Smart Numbers

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